For all my people out there that are not politically astute, have no fear -- be'cuz Bellini is your certified political junkie willing to help you out (fact #2 -- my bread 'n' butter degree is political science) . . .
So apparently, Obama has closed in on Hillary's lead in the Iowa polls (pay attention to questions 5-8). All the pundits are curiously watching the developments be'cuz Iowa is considered a watershed moment in presidential elections. For Obama its considered his make it or break it state and this is why : Hillary has been built up by the media as the inevitable candidate to beat for the Democratic and presidential nomination -- quite interesting considering half of Americans that would normally vote haven't made their mind up.
The Iowa Caucus is the first state to have their primary and its outcome will wield much influence over voters in New Hampshire (the 2nd state to have their primary following Iowa). He needs the wave of viability -- where wining Iowa will encourage New Hampshire to follow trend and recognize his electability so he can make it through South Carolina. But before we get to that point there are still 4 democratic debates that must take place. Any child of politics knows one gaffe (or whatever irrelevant, minor event the media chooses to zero in on) and a candidate can be screwed (do you remeber Howard Dean and screamfest, i don't even know what all the bruhaha was all about but the media had a field day and that was the beginning of the end of Dean's presidential campaign).
So, Obama I need you to be on your A+++ game, don't give any of your opponents or the media a wedge of opportunity at your expense. Buckle down!!! Now in the midst of all of this is Obama's secret weapon (besides his wife Michelle Obama) . . . Oprah.
What no political pundit or junkie is certain of is the Oprah effect. I mean Oprah can resurrect a novel from the dead and it goes #1 -- unbelievable. Now some people assume its easier selling books than a politician. nope not Bellini -- I think the latter. . . I think it should be easier selling a politician versus a book. I hope I'm right too, cuz I don't like how folks are just dismissing him from the history books it ain't cool. So, here's how Oprah is supposed to benefit Obama:
1. she is supposed to pull some of the women from under Hillary's hat,
2. she should pull some of the sistas back to Obama. . . and that my folks will give Obama the edge he needs to win!
There are too many hypotheticals that can happen in 2008 -- no one is guaranteed to win their party's candidacy nor the presidential election. So, let a brotha just be. . . don't rule him out before the last count. (fyi -- I am a registered independent , I don't have a peculiar inclination for any candidate)
For all my junkies out there, the fun is about to begin . . . I can't wait. Bellini will provide more political analysis in 2008. . . stay tuned . . .
cheers,
Bellini
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10 comments:
Do the folks in Middle America really listen and obey Oprah?
For me, its those middle state folks (the many who weren't polled) who I'm concerned about. Are they ready for a man of color? Are they even ready for a woman?
I know I am. But I'm also black, an east coaster, a woman, and a skeptic. I don't think that part of America wants anything other than the good ole White Man running things.
And the prelim results we are getting now are part of the media hype show. I just want yell "Don't believe them Barack! Don't fall for it! Do you bruh! Look what happened to Othello!" As fictional as he was that model could be applied to many a black person.
But as person who has a republican maternal side and a democratic paternal side I shrug my shoulders when it comes to politics. I do look forward to reading your view on the many things to come...
Actually,the polls are a good reminder to political pundits that all there overanalysis is just that.They didn't believe Hillary's hyped wave of inevitability will give wing to another candidate. Remember on the GOP side, Huckabee is doin' the damn thing.
Rright now it's not about middle america --it's about Iowa. Girl, we have to take it a state at a time. the folks who ain't ready, just ain't ready. Barack ain't got time to be trippin' off of 'em -- not at this point in time anyway. I know its hard for you Amaretto, but try to resist some of your natural defenses and just roll wit' it. Let's enjoy the ride so we can remind the history books we were present.
Hmmm... This whole Oprah/Obama thing makes me think of that saying: you can lead a horse to water...well you know the rest.
Sure, Oprah led people to buy the Anna Karenina but um how many of those millions actually sat down and read and finished that behemoth of a novel? Does that matter? Yes, because I think it would speak to how we measure influence. I think perhaps a better example is her involvement in the Color Purple (a small musical that started in ATL-and I was living in Atlanta during its debut production and I remember thinking "who made the Color Purple into a musical') and how people of all nationalities have flocked to Broadway. That says more about her influence... I am in agreement w/ Eugene Robinson's article from the Post yesterday, that her helping Obama's campaign can't hurt, but how much it will help is questionable...
Oh and Oprah also made, and used her show as a vehicle to promote her movie, her baby Beloved. And we see how well that did. Yeah. Influence can be hit or miss. That's my time y'all!
i don't want you guys to miss the point. politics is strategic. given the fact that O's influence can't hurt the campaign is beneficial in and of itself. The fact that people spend their money to buy a book says something -- whether they read it or not is irrelevant. She is able to interfere with the natural order of things and that speaks volumes.
Oh, I’m sure having Oprah sing your praises won’t hurt. Great strategy.
What would be an even better one?
If we knew what Obama was truly about. What’s his platform? Did I miss where he made that clear? I’m hearing that he’s supposed to be different. But going beyond the fact that he has some color he sounds just like the rest of our political offerings-not saying anything revolutionary.
How can you say that the fact that they read (or didn’t read) the book is irrelevant? That’s key. Now you have the Obama bandwagon rolling along strong. Maybe Oprah has people curious and considering jumping on. Right now a lot of people are buying in. But at the primary, when it comes down to choosing-are they going to chose him?
I’m just saying: I don’t want to hear who Oprah or Barbara endorses. Candidates please tell me your strategy for education, healthcare, the war and the economy. I’m waiting and I’m listening.
Oh Bellini, you know that we could do this all day...you know our feelings about Obama & Oprah...I understand Oprah's relevance & influence...Coming from the PR world, I understand the strategy...I get that she was able to get the whole world to READ!! But she won't be in the voting booths pulling levers, punching chads and touching screens (although I'm sure she wishes she could be) LOL! Anyway...While I understand the 'O' factor, buying a book for $19.95 does not affect all aspects of your life for the next 4 or possible 8 years and to me that is a hell of a difference...
if you're not feelin' Obama that is fine -- just don't rule him out, 'cuz compared to Hillary or anyone else for that matter he's not doing a shabby job and that's my bone to pick with you 2 and everybody else who won't even give him a chance, hence " can a brotha just be" this has been my point from the start. yes we could do this all day, but today won't be that day.
cheers!
what would be "revolutionary" from these candidates? what is revolutionary to us: universal healthcare, reparations, etc. would not be the things that would get that person elected by the general population. a candidate has to be cross-cutting, accessible on several different levels to a wide variety of people in order to succeed (or else have the supreme court vote you in)
amen ms. mint! just wanted to add that the reality is we live in a society of followers. we [as a nation] do what we're "told" to do... what to wear, where to live, what schools we send our kids to, and yes who we elect for office- most of those decisions are made by following insteading of thinking for self or leading. Obama having Oprah on his side ain't no different than the countless stupid TV ads candidates start airing close to election day.
a true politician will tell you that you cannot [openly]stand too firm on any issue. it's easier to talk your way outta something when you never truly endorsed it in the first place. everyone has core issues used to support their platform but neutrality is key to winning votes. shady? yes. but that's how you run for office.
regardless of how much you love or hate Oprah or whatever your sentiments may be about her... the 'O' factor is undeniable. jim jones ain't got nothin on Oprah!
ballin. . .
dark & stormy, I just had to do it!
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