can a brotha just be

For all my people out there that are not politically astute, have no fear -- be'cuz Bellini is your certified political junkie willing to help you out (fact #2 -- my bread 'n' butter degree is political science) . . .

So apparently, Obama has closed in on Hillary's lead in the Iowa polls (pay attention to questions 5-8). All the pundits are curiously watching the developments be'cuz Iowa is considered a watershed moment in presidential elections. For Obama its considered his make it or break it state and this is why : Hillary has been built up by the media as the inevitable candidate to beat for the Democratic and presidential nomination -- quite interesting considering half of Americans that would normally vote haven't made their mind up.

The Iowa Caucus is the first state to have their primary and its outcome will wield much influence over voters in New Hampshire (the 2nd state to have their primary following Iowa). He needs the wave of viability -- where wining Iowa will encourage New Hampshire to follow trend and recognize his electability so he can make it through South Carolina. But before we get to that point there are still 4 democratic debates that must take place. Any child of politics knows one gaffe (or whatever irrelevant, minor event the media chooses to zero in on) and a candidate can be screwed (do you remeber Howard Dean and screamfest, i don't even know what all the bruhaha was all about but the media had a field day and that was the beginning of the end of Dean's presidential campaign).

So, Obama I need you to be on your A+++ game, don't give any of your opponents or the media a wedge of opportunity at your expense. Buckle down!!! Now in the midst of all of this is Obama's secret weapon (besides his wife Michelle Obama) . . . Oprah.

What no political pundit or junkie is certain of is the Oprah effect. I mean Oprah can resurrect a novel from the dead and it goes #1 -- unbelievable. Now some people assume its easier selling books than a politician. nope not Bellini -- I think the latter. . . I think it should be easier selling a politician versus a book. I hope I'm right too, cuz I don't like how folks are just dismissing him from the history books it ain't cool. So, here's how Oprah is supposed to benefit Obama:
1. she is supposed to pull some of the women from under Hillary's hat,
2. she should pull some of the sistas back to Obama. . . and that my folks will give Obama the edge he needs to win!

There are too many hypotheticals that can happen in 2008 -- no one is guaranteed to win their party's candidacy nor the presidential election. So, let a brotha just be. . . don't rule him out before the last count. (fyi -- I am a registered independent , I don't have a peculiar inclination for any candidate)

For all my junkies out there, the fun is about to begin . . . I can't wait. Bellini will provide more political analysis in 2008. . . stay tuned . . .


cheers,

Bellini